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Presidential
Cameron County is home to the city of Brownsville, as well as Elon Musk's "city" of Starbase along the Gulf of Mexico. The county frequently votes for whichever candidate wins the national popular vote, and it retained this status, backing Trump by almost 6 points in 2024, amongst Trump's massive gains in Hispanic-populous South Texas
El Paso County may have still voted strongly for Kamala Harris, but it saw massive swings rightwards relative to 2020. Harris was able to win it by 15 points, but Democratic strength plummeted throughout the county, most noticably through flipped precincts in the east and along the New Mexico border
Nacogdoches County is the bluest in East Texas, which isn't saying much. Trump won it by 39 points, sweeping the vast majority of the county's land area, and winning most of the precincts in the aptly-named county seat of Nacogdoches. Harris only managed to win 2 precincts in the city, both with sizable minority populations
TX-23 spans the largest portion of the state's border with Mexico, and has shifted hard to the right in recent years. After narrow Dem/Rep wins in 2016 and 2020, Trump carried it by 15 points in 2024. Harris did best in Presido County (hippie destination), and Trump did best in the rural north of the district
The former TX-28 is one of the trio of districts in South Texas that stretch into the Austin and San Antonio metros. Initially drawn to favor Democrats (albeit narrowly), the district lurched rightwards in 2024, voting for Trump by a 7 point margin. Harris's main area of strength was in the San Antonio/Bexar County part of the district, downtown Laredo, and some rural Hispanic turf around Jim Hogg County
The former TX-29 is situated in the Hispanic areas of Houston and some of its eastern communities. Its has seen a significant shift rightwards since the onset of the Trump era, but still favored Kamala Harris in 2024 by over 20 points. Harris did best in the Houston proper, where there are higher African American populations, and worse in the southeast of the district, which has a more conservative subset of Hispanic voters
The mid-decade-redraw of TX-32 goes from a double-digit Harris seat, to an even more Republican Trump seat. Under the proposed lines, Trump flips the district due to the addition of a sizable amount of rural turf to the east of the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and subtraction of other Democratic leaning turf, which is subsequently used to pack Democrats into 2 DFW seats or is broken up by other districts. The district is technically winnable in a favorable midterm environment, but Democrats would have to throw a lot of resources at the district
The new iteration of TX-35 takes the district from a double-digit Harris seat, to one that Trump won by just over 10 points. The seat takes in parts of San Antonio, suburban counties between there and Austin, and some rural communities. Democrats may be able to hold the seat in the 2026 midterms, but currently, the district is without an incumbent due to Rep. Casar (D) jumping ship to the safely Democratic district centered on Austin
SD 19 is a monstrosity of a district that stretches from Brewster County in Big Bend County, to San Antonio and its suburbs. Initially drawn to heavily favor Democrats, Trump made massive gains in 2024, holding Harris to about a 1.5 point win, exclusively thanks to San Antonio/Bexar County
SD 21 is a comparable monstrosity of a district that strenches from the Rio Grande Valley in the south to Austin in the north. Prior to 2024, this would have been a safely Democratic seat, but the rightward lurch amongst Hispanics caused the seat to shift to only a 3-point Harris win, nearly exclusively fueled by Austin and San Marcos in the north
HD 52 is contained within Williamson County, and was drawn to eliminate a competitive seat, pairing blue-trending suburbs with rural turf. Democrats repped the previous decade's iteration of the district, but the current form went for Trump by over 8 points and elected a Republican representative. Given the district's demographics and trends, however, I would say that Democrats are narrow favorites to flip the seat this fall
The former TX-02 was repped by soon-to-be former Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R), who lost the primary for the 2026 iteration of the seat. The old district, however, only would have narrowly favored Trump, with him having carried it by 2.75 points. Fortunately for Republicans, having Kingwood and Klein in the district kept it in their column
The 2010's iteration of TX-10 was a gerrymander that took in part of Austin's urban core and grouped it with rural central Texas and Houston's exurbs. It would have went for Trump by about 7 points in 2024, with Harris only winning the Travis County portion of the seat, but making inroads in the Houston area
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