Utah

Presidential

The proposed mid-decade redraw of UT-02 would make the seat one that Trump won by just shy of 7 points. The seat would contain all of Tooele County, and part of Salt Lake. Democrats could win it in a Trump midterm, but holding the seat beyond that and 2028 is far from a guarantee

The proposed UT-03 would contain all or portions of the state's bluest counties, but Salt Lake County is split up in a such a way that the district would have been won by Trump by over 2 points. Democrats would be favored to win this seat during a Trump midterm, and could very well hold it until districts are drawn in the 2030s

Cache County sits to the north of the Great Salt Lake, and is home to the city of Logan. Trump won the county in 2024 by over 35 points. While the county has shifted leftwards in the Trump era, Harris was only able to win a handful of precincts in and around the Logan proper. Much of the county is uninhabited land, be it due to parks and protected land, or other less-than-ideal terrain for human settlement

Grand County is the least Mormon County in Utah, and has become a reliably Democratic County in recent years as the state has shifted leftwards. Harris won it by just under 10 points, with her victory here coming from the communities of Moab and Castle Valley. The county is home to Arches National Park, which is a major draw for outdoorsy-type liberal voters

Summit County has been Utah's most reliably Democratic County in recent years, due to its scenery attracting richer tourists from Salt Lake City. Harris won it by 15 points, with most of her votes coming from the Park City area, and most of Trump's coming from the more sparsely-populated east

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