Hawaii

SD 20 is the home of former Minority-of-1 Leader Kurt Favella. The district is one of the 3 Republican-leaning seats by 2024 Presidential partisanship in the state, backing Trump by about 5 points. The seat sits to the west of the Honolulu proper, and is home to most of the Ewa- area, and several army installations. When Favella flipped the seat in 2018, he became the sole Republican (after a total absence of the party from the chamber) in the chamber until 2022, with a third member joining after the 2024 elections. Favella is favored to win re-election, but Democrats could theoretically flip the seat this fall

SD 21 sits in southwest Oahu, and is one of the state's 3 Trump-won districts. The seat, however, is currently represented by a Democrat. Trump carried it by 4.25 points in 2024, only losing fragments of precincts along the western border. The district's primary city of Kapolei in the center of the seat, and may flip to Republicans this fall

SD 23 is home to the current Republican minority leader in the Hawaii Senate. Interestingly enough, its a seat that Harris won by 9 points along Oahu's north shore. Harris did best in the southern tip of the district, and in the northwest, whereas Trump did best in the far north and near the army barracks. The seat is not up for election this fall, otherwise, Democrats would have better prospects for gains in the chamber