Indiana

Presidential

Lake County sits along the southern shore of Lake Michigan, and is home to the once-prosperous city of Gary. Recent years and the decline of industry have not been kind to Lake County, and the once Democratic bastion has become much more competitive due to union workers moving away or switching parties. Kamala Harris only won Lake by just shy of 6 points, significantly down from Biden's 15-point margin in 2020. Losing Lake federally would have dire consequences for Democrats holding the state's 1st Congressional district, and hurt them significantly downballot. The county is also one of a few in the state that is in the Central Time Zone, due to many people commuting into Chicago for work

Jefferson County is home to some of the state's best hiking at Clifty Falls State Park. The county is home to Madison (by the park) and Hanover (home to Hanover College) Trump won it by about 37 points, with only one blue precinct being present in downtown Madison

Tippecanoe County was the closest in the state in 2024, going for Trump by only 100 votes. Home to (West) Lafayette and Purdue University, the county has a somewhat abrupt urban/rural divide in its politics, with Lafayette's margins breaking the tie between the deep red rurals and West Lafayette/Purdue's deep blue

The failed iteration of IN-08 attempted to be passed by the legislature in 2025 was an interesting seat that combined the semi-major cities of Bloomington, Evansville, and Terre Haute in the southwest of the state. Trump would have won it by about 21.5 points in 2024, only outright losing Bloomington/Monroe County. In the 2026 midterms, this would have likely been a more competitive seat than meets the eye

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