Florida

Hillsborough County has served as something of a national bellwether since the 2004 election, and is home to Tampa and many of Florida's other fastest-growing cities. Trump won it by 3 points, with his margin coming from the redder east and the Hispanic voters he flipped to the west. Harris did best in the majority Black parts of Tampa, and sporadic majority-nonwhite precincts throughout the county

HD 117 sits in the southern portion of Miami-Dade County, and was drawn to be a majority Hispanic district with a sizable Black population. The Black population of the seat was likely what kept it blue in 2024, as Trump gained massively in South Florida. While Biden had won the seat by double digits, Harris only managed to do so by 2 points, relying on Florida City and Richmond Heights to provide her critical edge in the district