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Presidential
Duval County sits close to the Georgia border, and is home to Jacksonville, the state's largest city. Trump managed to flip it back from Democrats in 2024, winning the county by about a point and a half. Harris did best in the Jacksonville center and the county's west, whereas Trump did best on the coast
Hillsborough County has served as something of a national bellwether since the 2004 election, and is home to Tampa and many of Florida's other fastest-growing cities. Trump won it by 3 points, with his margin coming from the redder east and the Hispanic voters he flipped to the west. Harris did best in the majority Black parts of Tampa, and sporadic majority-nonwhite precincts throughout the county
Lee County provides some of Republicans' best margins in the state. Home to Cape Coral and Ft. Myers, Trump carried the county by 28.5 points in 2024. The only area he did particularly poorly in was the Ft. Meyers proper, which is more minority-populous than the rest of the county
St. John's County is a major suburban of Jacksonville to the north, and went for Trump in 2024 by 31.5 points. The major city here is St. Augustine, which also has the county's few Democratic precincts. Most of the county is concentrated along the coastline, given that inland becomes gradually swampier the farther one goes. Still, Fruit Cove is a notable outer suburb of Jacksonville that is further inland than other cities
FL-04 is the more competitive of the two seats that bisect Jacksonville, preventing a Democrat from being elected. Trump won the district, which also includes Nassau and Clay counties, by 12 points, only losing the Duval/Jacksonville portion of the seat. This district stayed the same on DeSantis's proposed map, and is a potential flip for Democrats this fall, given the blue year and Rep. Mills's (R) scandals
After the 2024 elections, FL-14 seems to be a semi-competitive district. The seat was drawn as a Tampa Bay Democratic pack, but only went for Harris by about 8 points. She managed to carry the city propers of Tampa and Saint Petersburg, but Trump managed to gain ground in the communities to the west of Tampa within Hillsborough County. The district may be redrawn by the Florida legislature before the 2026 midterms, but if it isn't, Democrats are likely to hold it. If the seat remains in its current form beyond 2026 though, it will likely be competitive down the line, assuming that Florida stays on its current trajectory
The DeSantis-proposed FL-16 aims to eliminate a St. Petersburg-area competitive district through grouping it with reliably conservative turf to the South across the Tampa Bay. Trump would have won the district by 14 points, only losing the Pinellas County portion, and a smattering of predominantly Black precincts throughout the rest of the seat
HD 117 sits in the southern portion of Miami-Dade County, and was drawn to be a majority Hispanic district with a sizable Black population. The Black population of the seat was likely what kept it blue in 2024, as Trump gained massively in South Florida. While Biden had won the seat by double digits, Harris only managed to do so by 2 points, relying on Florida City and Richmond Heights to provide her critical edge in the district
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