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The new CA-03 was drawn to be a much more liberal district, going from around R+3 to D+10.5 relative to 2024 margins. Harris's numbers largely came from Sacramento and the Lake Tahoe area, whereas Trump's came from the Placer County suburbs/exurbs, and the district's rural areas. The seat at least starts at Lean Dem for 2026
Inyo County is home to Death Valley National Park, and is a sparsely populated county along the Nevada border. After Biden narrowly carried it in 2020, Trump came back to flip it by 3 points. The touristy and Native-populous areas to the south of the county backed Harris the most, and the north (including the county seat of Bishop) backed Trump
Lake County is a major part of California's wine county, and flipped to Trump in 2024. He carried the county by about a point and a half, despite it being semi-proximate to Harris's home of San Francisco. Trump did best along the county's borders, and Democrats in communities surrounding the county's namesake, Clear Lake
Mariposa County is home to Yosemite National park, and the natural areas of the county have their own distinct voting patterns. While Trump carried the county at-large by about 21.5 points, he lost by large margins in the Yosemite area, doing better in the west of the county
Plumas County is a relatively small county to the north of Sacramento and the Lake Tahoe area. Trump carried it by 17.5 points, which is comparatively poor for a more-rural county. He did worst in Quincy, and best in the less densely populated parts of the county
Riverside County CA was a surprise flip by the Trump campaign on election night 2024, with the county having gone blue Presidentially since Obama's 2008 run. Trump's across-the-board improvement, but especially among Hispanic voters, resulted in Riverside and neighboring San Bernardino flipping
San Deigo County is among the largest in the country, and is a huge source of Democratic votes (which also makes it a key part of the recent Congressional gerrymander). Harris won the county by over 17 points, with much of that margin coming from the city proper. Trump did best in the county's rurals, El Cajon, and Coronado
San Luis Obispo County sits along the state's central coast, and is a major wine producer. Harris won it by 11 points in 2024, carrying the like-named county seat and other mainly coastal precincts, with Trump doing best further inland. Jehovah's Witnesses also have a large presence in the county, but tend not to vote in large numbers
Santa Catalina Island within Los Angeles County is one of the few populated Channel Islands off of the state's southern coast, which is home to a few thousand residents. The only two real communities on the island are Avalon and Two Harbors. Harris won the island by about 14.5 points. Avalon's precinct has the overwhelming majority of residents, though both it and Two Harbors have ferry lines to the mainland
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