Pennsylvania

Monroe County was one of the handful in the state that flipped to Trump in 2024. Home to a portion of the Poconos and its related tourism, Trump won it by just shy of a point. Harris did best around Stroudsburg and Mount Pocono in opposite corners of the county, whereas Trump did best in the rurals between them, and townships like Barrett and Chestnuthill

HD 3 sits in Erie County, containing primarily the Erie (city) suburbs of Millcreek and Fairview, as well as the inconic park of Preque Isle. Harris won the seat by an even 2 points in 2020, doing best in the Erie-adjacent areas, and Trump doing best around Fairview and south-central Millcreek. The seat could be competitive in the future, but is likely to be a Democratic hold in 2026 with popular Rep. Bizzaro (D)