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Presidential
Fluvanna County sits to the east of Charlottesville, and has had a fairly reliable Republican tilt in recent years. Trump carried it by just short of 6.5 points in 2024, winning the vast majority of the county's area. Harris did best in the Lake Monticello area, which straddles the Albemarle County line. Spanberger narrowly lost this county in 2025, which is surprising given the strongly pro-Democratic swing of the year
Nelson County is unique for many reasons, including being home a controversial former Congressman, containing Bold Rock Cidery, and having no incorporated municipalities. The largest settlement is Nellysford, and the county seat is Lovingston. Trump won it by 7.5 points, doing worst around Nellysford and the ski town of Wintergreen, and broadly poorly along the Albemarle County border to the northeast (which is home to Charlottesville at its center). Spanberger flipped this county in 2025
York County is home to Yorktown, the site of the US victory in the Revolutionary War. In 2024, Trump caarried the county by just over 6 points. He won the densely populated southern portion of the county to seal this win, albeit by relatively narrow margins. Harris won the less-populous north and one precinct bordering the Hampton Roads cities (and Poquoson). Spanberger flipped this county in 2025
SD 24 is the most Democratic leaning in the state currently held by a Republican. The district is home to York, Poquoson, Williamsburg, and a portion of Newport News, and went for Kamala Harris by just over 8 points in 2024. When the seat comes up in 2027, Democrats will be narrowly favored to flip it, and will likely make gains in the region in the State House elections this year
HD 34 sits within Rockingham County, containing the independent city of Harrisonburg (home to James Madison University), Elkton, Massanutten, Massanetta Springs, and Linville. Trump won the district by a suspicious 6.66 points, with Harris's win of Harrisonburg standing out. The district likely starts out as a tossup for this fall, but gun to my head, it will probably narrowly stay in the Republican column
HD 36 takes in the independent cities of Staunton and Waynesboro, a bit of Augusta County, and then a portion of Rockbridge to their south. Trump was able to win this poorly drawn seat (the 36th could have been wholly within Augusta/Staunton/Waynesboro) by 19 points, with the Staunton portion of the seat breaking heavily for Harris. Outside of Staunton, Harris was only able to carry one other precinct (in Waynesboro)
HD 42 is a component piece of a poor districting choice. Instead of having a district between Blacksburg, Radford (both college towns), and Christiansburg, the mapmakers drew Blacksburg in with rural Roanoke County, and put Radford and Christiansburgin with portions of Pulaski and Giles County. This seat would go for Trump by 25 points
HD 66 contains parts of Spotsylvania and Caroline counties to the south of the DC metro. Trump won the seat by just over 2 points in 2024, doing best outside of the major population centers (but not terribly within them). This is another seat that is likely a pure tossup, but I would rate as Leans Republican if I had to assign a rating
My ideal iteration of SD 11 in the Charlottesville area would require no country splits, containing all of the independent city of Charlottesville (home to the University of Virginia), and the counties of Albermarle, Buckingham, Fluvanna, and Nelson. Harris would have carried the seat by just shy of 29 points, almost exclusively thanks to Albemarle and Charlottesville, albeit with pockets of Democratic strength in Lake Monitcello and Nellysford
Gubernatorial
Hanover County sits to the north of Richmond, and has historically been among the state's reddest. In the 2025 gubernatorial election, Lt. Gov Sears carried it by over 20 points, but this was a notable drop from Trump's 2024 margin. Spanberger also managed to flip a handful of precincts in and around Ashland, which didn't do Sears any favors
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