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Presidential
WI-01 was Paul Ryan's former seat in Congress, and has been a perenially competitive (but Republican-favoring) district. Trump won the seat in 2024 by 4.5 points, doing best in the rural communities that connect parts of the outer Madison area with Lake Michigan-adjacent communities like Kenosha and Racine. Given the pending 2026 midterm environment, this could well be a Democratic flip
Ashland County sits on the shore of Lake Superior, and has long been a Democratic-won county. However, recent years have seen it trend fairly rightwards. Kamala Harris won it by just shy of 5 points in 2024, only outright winning Ashland, the Apostle Islands, and the Bad River Reservation (Chippewa Native Americans) to the county's north. Trump swept many of the precincts south of the lakeshore. The area is known for recreation as well, with many vacation properites dotting the landscape
Columbia County sits to the north of the state's capital (Madison), and has been a competitive county since the onset of the Trump era. Trump has won it narrowly in each of his 3 bids, doing so by about 4.5 points in 2024. Harris did the best in Portage, Lodi, and Columbus, but breaking even in Rio and Poynette while losing Wisconsin dells cost her the county
Door County used to be a much swingier county early in the Trump years, but has since come to lean narrowly but reliably Democratic. Harris won it by just over 2 points, with the northern half of the Door Peninula and Sturgeon Bay voting strongly in her favor, and the mainland rurals going hardest for Trump
La Crosse County is aptly home to La Crosse, and will be home to one of the most critical legislative battlegrounds for the state in 2026. Harris won the county in 2024 by 9.5 points, doing best in the La Crosse proper, and legislative Democrats have 3 State House seats in the area to defend. If their margins drop here, the loss of seats threatens their prospective State House majority
SD 17 will be critical in Democrats' efforts to retake the State Senate in 2026. A Republican currently represents this seat, which Harris carried by about a point. Portions of Dane County are combined with Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Grant, Crawford, and a bit of Richland counties to make this seat competitive. Harris did best closer to Madison, whereas Trump did best in the outer portions of the seat
HD 73 stretches along the northern coast of the state, going from the Minnesota border to the Apostle Islands, and is home to the main communities of Ashland, Bayfield, and Superior. Harris carried the district by just under 16 points in 2024, with her strongest support coming from the Native American communities in the east of the district. Trump's came from the whiter rural areas along the district's southern border
HD 85 sits entirely within Marathon County in northern Wisconsin, and contains the cities of Stetin, Wausau, and Weston. Trump narrowly won the seat by just over half a point. I would rate the seat at Leans Republican going into 2026, but Democrats have a solid opportunity to flip it in pursuit of a State House Majority, especially if former Wausau Mayor Katie Rosenberg runs for the seat
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