Wisconsin
Senatorial
The new version of Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional district was mandated to be a minimal change from the previous decade's map. The seat swung hard to Republicans in the post Obama era, and is likely to flip to them in 2022 due to Democratic Rep. Ron Kind's retirement after having repped the seat for almost 2 decades. Baldwin, however, carried this Driftless Area centric seat by about 13 points. The main cities of La Crosse, Eau Claire, and Stevens Point all turned deep blue, as did significant tracts of rural area
Wisconsin was won by Donald Trump in 2016, marking the first time the state had gone red in over 30 years. In 2018 though, it saw a swing back to Democrats. At the top of the ticket was Senator Tammy Baldwin. She won by almost 11 points, expanding Democratic margins in the suburbs around Milwaukee and Madison, building back the Blue Wall in the Driftless Area, and posting decent margins in rural areas around the state
Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago counties (the BOW Counties) sit along the Fox River in northeast Wisconsin, and frequently lean Republican. Senator Baldwin won all of them in her 2018 re-election, which indicated a massive win (10 or so points). Her 3 point margin in the BOW Counties came primarily from its larger cities, namely Green Bay, Appleton, and Oshkosh
Milwaukee County's turnout has in recent years been bad for Democrats, but that was definitely fixed in 2018. Baldwin was able to crack 43% of the vote, with African Americans turning out for her in huge numbers. Even the more traditionally Republican parts of the county turned lighter shades of red
Wisconsin's counties that border Lake Superior have historically been some of the most Democratic in the state, but have gotten redder in recent years. In 2018 though, they flared more blue, with Sen. Baldwin winning the group by over 24 points. She carried Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas handily, while narrowly losing Iron
In 2020, Donald Trump won the less-populated counties of Wisconsin's upper Driftless Area by double digits. This marked a notable swing from 2018, when Senator Tammy Baldwin carried these counties by about 5.5 points. Democratic strength has been fading in the area in recent years, but she was still able to post solid margins in places like River Falls, Menomonie, Pepin, and other more rural communities
In 2022, Democrats narrowly held Wisconsin SD 31. In 2018, however, Senator Baldwin won it by over 14 points. Outside of Eau Claire, the area appears to have gone for Baldwin narrowly, with Eau Claire putting it way past the line
Fond du Lac County is one of the largest that Vukmir won outside of the WOW counties in her 2018 defeat. Baldwin was able to do decently in Fond du Lac and Ripon, but Vukmir was able to win by over 14 points due to her massive margins throughout the rest of the county
Grant County sits along the Iowa border, and is home to University of Wisconsin-Platteville. It went for Baldwin in 2018 by almost a 9 point margin, after having backed Trump in 2016 by a similar margin. Democratic strength was strongest in the Northern and Eastern parts of the counties, and in the larger cities/towns
Portage County sits in north-central Wisconsin, and has become more competitive post-Obama era. In the 2018 Senate race, however, Baldwin managed to reverse these trends, and won the county by over 16 points. Her margins improved across the board, but the Stevens Point area was what really boosted her numbers
Vilas County sits along the border with Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Baldwin lost it by about 15 points, but won the Lac du Flambeau Native American Reservation by over 20 points
SD 25 is a district where Democrats have been slipping significantly in recent years. Despite this, Baldwin was able to win the seat by just over 7 points, mainly due to her huge margins in the BAD counties (Bayfield, Ashland, and Douglas). Her performance throughout the district, however, still ran far ahead of other federal Democrats