Mississippi

De Soto County sits along the TN border, and contains many of Memphis's southern suburbs. Democrats have made substantial gains in recent years, but the county still leans fairly Republican. Trump won it by just short of 25 points, with Horn Lake, Southaven, and Olive Branch all at least having portions that went strongly for Kamala Harris

Harrison County is home to the cities of Biloxi and Gulfport, making it a regional economic hub. Trump won the county by just over 29 points. His margins largely came from the outskirts of the cities, and wealthy, tourist-dominant areas. Harris's votes largely came from the majority Black cores of Biloxi and Gulfport

Lafayette County is home to the University of Mississippi/Ole Miss (in Oxford), and went for Trump by 22 points in 2024. Democrats did best in the majority African American communities surrounding Oxford, but the city itself and the surrounding areas still keep the county fairly red

Tallahatchie County is one of the more competitive counties in the Mississippi Delta region, after having been fairly reliably Democratic in years past. Harris carried it by about 6 points in 2024, with most of her margin coming from the Blacker rurals, and the dual county seats of Charleston and Sumner. Trump's came from the largely rural, white east and center of the county. I would expect the county to flip federally at some point next decade