Tennessee

TN-07 is one of the three districts that divides Nashville up to eliminate a Democratic seat. While Trump won the district by over 22 points in 2024, the special election to replace Rep. Green (R) is shaping up to be a very competitive race. Dems winning the seat back will require them to put up astronomical numbers in Nashville, and perform *very* well in and around Clarksville and Franklin, while keeping damage from rural areas to a minimum

Hamilton County sits along the state's border with Georgia, and is home to Chattanooga. Trump won it by 13 points, with most of the Chattanooga proper going for Harris. The county has shifted heavily Democratic in recent years, but still reamins fairly Republican up and down the ballot

Haywood County was the state's closest in 2024, with Kamala Harris carrying it by under 100 votes. This fairly African-American county sits to the northeast of Memphis, and its largest city is Brownsville. Harris did best in the city proper and the more African-American precincts, whereas Trump did best in the whiter rural areas. Given current trends among nonwhite voters, Republicans may well flip the county in 2028

SD 5 is one of the trio of seats that divide the Knoxville area to keep a Democrat from being elected. Trump won the seat by almost 37 points, thanks to the rural communities and suburbs/exurbs outside of the city. Harris did best in the Knoxville proper, and in a smattering of precincts in Oak Ridge to the west of the city

SD 7 sits in Knox County, and is the most competitive seat in the region due to the intense gerrymander that splits Knoxville amongst 3 districts. The seat went for Trump by 19 points, with the county's outer communities breaking hard in his favor, and the Knoxville proper going strongly for Harris