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The new TN-09 is a gerrymander that helps to cut Memphis into three parts, and groups its portion of the city with a vast rural territory (including the ancestral founding town of the KKK) and conservative Nashville suburbs. Under the new map, this is the *most* competitive district in the state, but it is one that Trump would have carried by 20 points in 2024. The district will almost certainly flip to a Republican this fall
The new TN-07 is an oddly compact portion of the gerrymander, but still functions just as brutally. Trump would have carried this iteration of the seat in 2024 by just under 23 points, only losing the Davidson County (Nashville) portion of the seat to Harris. This iteration of the seat shed its southern turf for slightly more reliably Republican-leaning turf to the northeast of the district's core
Hamilton County sits along the state's border with Georgia, and is home to Chattanooga. Trump won it by 13 points, with most of the Chattanooga proper going for Harris. The county has shifted heavily Democratic in recent years, but still reamins fairly Republican up and down the ballot
Haywood County was the state's closest in 2024, with Kamala Harris carrying it by under 100 votes. This fairly African-American county sits to the northeast of Memphis, and its largest city is Brownsville. Harris did best in the city proper and the more African-American precincts, whereas Trump did best in the whiter rural areas. Given current trends among nonwhite voters, Republicans may well flip the county in 2028
Sevier County serves as the eastern US's mountain playground, home to Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg. Dolly Parton is also from here, and headquartered her theme park in Pigeon Forge. Trump won the county by almost 62 points, carrying every precinct by over a 40-point margin. The *least* red precinct contains Gatlinburg and Smoky Mountain National Park
SD 5 is one of the trio of seats that divide the Knoxville area to keep a Democrat from being elected. Trump won the seat by almost 37 points, thanks to the rural communities and suburbs/exurbs outside of the city. Harris did best in the Knoxville proper, and in a smattering of precincts in Oak Ridge to the west of the city
SD 7 sits in Knox County, and is the most competitive seat in the region due to the intense gerrymander that splits Knoxville amongst 3 districts. The seat went for Trump by 19 points, with the county's outer communities breaking hard in his favor, and the Knoxville proper going strongly for Harris
The former TN-07 was one of the three districts that divides Nashville up to eliminate a Democratic seat, grouping a third of the city with Clarksville and other rural turf in the central part of the state. While Trump won the district by over 22 points in 2024, the special election to replace Rep. Green (R) was a fairly competitive race, but the Democrat ended up losing
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