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Lake County was one that I had expected to flip to Trump going into 2024, but it was its neighbor Carlton that ended up flipping. Lake went to Kamala Harris by 4 points, due to both the presence of tourist/hippie towns and Native Americans. Trump performed best in the Silver Bay area, and in the rural turf most proximate to St. Louis County. In all likelihood, Harris's margins from the Two Harbors precincts was what kept Lake in the Democratic column
SD 14 is centered around the St. Cloud area in the center of the state, and is likely to be competitive in 2026. Trump won the seat by 4 points, with the rural areas outside of the St. Cloud proper providing most of his margin. The district does hop county lines a notable amount, but so do the city lines in the area
HD 2A sits in the far north of the state (including the very top of the Minnesota), and was a narrow Trump won seat in 2024. Trump was able to win the district by 7 points, mainly powered by the district's rural areas. Harris did best in the Red Lake Reservation-area, and the turf around Bemidji, home to Bemidji State University. While Harris would end up winning the Beltrami County portion of the seat narrowly, Trump winning everything else handily put the district into Republicans' column
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