New York

Presidential

Niagara County was competitive before the Trump era, but has shifted to be a reliably Republican county in the years since. Trump carried it by almost 15 points in 2024, with the rurals and North Tonawanda breaking heavily in his favor. In contrast, Harris did best in and around Niagara Falls along the Canadian border, and in Lockport further inland

Ontario County is in the Finger Lakes region of the state, and has been a competitive county for years. Trump won it by a single point in 2024, carrying the most rural precincts by a large enough margin to offset Harris's wins in Geneva and Canadaigua. Harris also did comparatively well in the county's rural areas relative to other rural communities in the area, likely due to the draw of wealthier residents due to the lakes

St. Lawrence County is the state's largest by area, sits along the state's northern border with Canada, and has become more firmly Republican since the start of the Trump era. He carried the county by an even 18 points, only losing a handful of precincts to Harris between the county's major cities of Canton, Massena, and Potsdam

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