New Mexico

Grant County is home to Silver City, and sits just to the north of the Mexcian border. Democrats have held onto it during the Trump era, despite Hispanics' major shift rightwards, with Kamala Harris winning it by just over 5 points. Democratic strength is concentrated around Silver City and Bayard, with smaller pockets around Lake Roberts and Gila Hot Springs

SD 8 is a majority Hispanic district to the east of Albuquerque and Santa Fe, and a seat that I would have expected Republicans to win given their 2024 gains with Hispanic voters. However, Harris managed to win the seat by just short of 9 points. Much of her margin came from the city of Las Vegas in San Miguel County, and Trump's strength was mainly from the whiter rural communities along the eastern edge of the district