Montana

Presidential

Big Horn County is a majority Native American county in southeastern Montana. Despite John Tester (D) winning it in the Senate race (by double digits) and Joe Biden carrying it in 2020, Trump was able to flip the county by almost a 2-point margin in 2024. The margins dropped outside of the blue core of Crow Agency enough to allow Trump a win of the county, the first for a Republican in decades

SD 16, also called the Stingray, splits a handful of counties in eastern Montana as to combine Native American reservation communities. The area was much more Democratic before 2024, but shifted to the right to only favor Harris by short of 5 points. Still, Harris performed the best on the reservations, whereas Trump won the more rural, white-populous turf

Flathead County serves as a gateway to Glacier National Park, and was won by Trump by just shy of 35 points in 2024. Harris did best adjacent to the park and in the city of Whitefish, while Trump did best in Kalispell and the southern rurals. The area is looking up for Democrats due to the hippie/tourism draw, but they still have a long way to go before the county becomes politically competitive

Park County is home to Livingston, and part of Yellowstone National Park, and sits to the east of Bozeman. Trump won the county by 7 points in 2024, with the outer portions of the district (save that adjacent to Yellowstone) powered his win, with Livingston favoring Harris the most. This is a county that Democrats are likely to flip in the coming years, a point highlighted by former Democratic Sen. John Tester carrying the county as Harris lost it

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