Georgia

GA-01 stretches across the state's Atlantic coastline, and went for Trump in 2024 by about 16 points. Harris carried 2 of the district's counties; Chatham (home to Savannah) and Liberty (home to Hinesville). Trump won whites outside of Savannah by overwhelming numbers, and the handful of precincts that Harris carried outside of the Savannah area are predominantly African American-populous. Rep. Carter (R) is running for Senate in 2026, which means that the district will have its first open-seat contest in years

Clay County is a small, predominantly Black county in the southwest of the state. Harris won it by 7.5 points, with her largest margins coming from the city of Fort Gaines along the Alabama border. Trump pulled his best margins from around Bluffton in the southeast of the county. With populations and voting patterns shifting, I would expect Republicans to start winning Clay and other small, currently Black-populous counties in the region in the coming years

Wilkes County sits in the northeast of the state, and last went Presidentially Democratic for Bill Clinton in 1996. Trump carried it by 17 points, doing best in the outer rural communities, and small cities of Tignall and Rayle. Harris did best in the southeast/county seat of Washington due to the larger Black population there. Fun fact: Washington GA was the first city named after George Washington