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Gubernatorial
Andy Beshear's most notable regional flip was that of Northern Kentucky. He won the trio of Boone, Campbell, and Kenton counties by 567 votes, after having lost the trio by about 3 points in 2019. Kenton and Boone counties swung notably to the left, and Campbell only slightly
Boone County is frequently the county where Republicans win their densest precincts in the state. While Daniel Cameron only won Boone by 12 points (significantly down from Trump's 30+), he carried dense precincts in Burlington and Union, while Beshear only won a scattering of precincts in and around Florence
Andy Beshear's 2023 performance in Campbell County was marginally better than his 2019 performance by a few points. He notably improved in Alexandria, where he flipped a precinct, and held his own in the realigning Ft. Thomas and Bellevue areas. Campbell was not a must-win for Cameron, but he needed to have done a lot better than an 8.5 point loss
Inside Campbell County, Beshear won Ft. Thomas, a historically conservative city (and my hometown) by almost 15 points. He lost one precinct, which is in the wealthier, more Catholic part of town. The city has shifted sharply left in the Trump-era, and Beshear basically inverted Trump's 2020 margin of victory in the city
Beshear needed to post solid numbers in the Bluegrass to win re-election, and flipping Clark County was the way to do that. He won the county by about 3 points in 2023 after having lost it in 2019. Notably, Andy Beshear's father, former Governor Steve Beshear, is now a resident of Winchester
Daniel Cameron needed to win his home county of Hardin by a substantial margin in order to win the governorship. Unfortunately for him, the hometown effect was likely the only reason he carried the county. The county stayed red by 154 votes, with Radcliff and Elizabethtown turning bright blue
Madison County was the median for the state in 2019, and despite getting bluer, voted to the right of the state in 2023. Beshear improved on his plurality win to carry Madison by about 3.5 points, though his statewide margin was D+5. The Richmond and Berea areas turned even darker shades of blue, and the outer portions of the county weren't as Republican-favoring as their typical federal partisanship would infer
HD 84 was another notable flip of Beshear's. His margins in parts of SEKY jetted up due to his handling of the flooding. He flipped Perry county, and dramatically improved in both Breathitt and Owsley. He had previously lost Perry by around 9 points, which makes this magnitude of flip notable
Beshear narrowly flipped the Red River Gorge area, home to Meniffee, Powell, and Wolfe counties. Beshear lost some ground in Meniffee, held his own in Wolfe, but managed to swing Powell massively, winning it by 1 vote. The outdoorsy culture blooming in Powell and Wolfe counties due to the Gorge likely played a significant role in this, as well as proximity to flood recovery efforts
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