Alabama

Presidential

Houston County is the largest county of the Wiregrass region in the state's southeast. Trump won it by 48 points, doing worst around the county seat of Dothan. Notably, the most of the county had a Democratic State Representative until recently

Lee County is among the largest in the eastern part of the state, and is home to Auburn University. Trump carried the county by 28 points, with Harris doing best in more minority-heavy and student-populous communities. Lee County used to be home to one of the most populous precincts in the US in the Auburn area, but it has since been divided

Tuscaloosa County sits directly to the west of Birmingham, and is home to the University of Alabama. The city of Tuscaloosa itself is the bluest part of the district, with the university and a high minority population. Still, Trump carried the county by about 20.5 points due to his strong support coming from the county's rural communities and whiter suburbs

SD 2 is a prime flip opportunity for Alabama Democrats this fall. The district was about Trump +0.5 in 2025, and is situated within Madison County. Huntsville is the largest city at least partially within the district, and said portion of the city is the bluest part of the seat. If Democrats can turn out their base in Huntsville and gain ground in Madison and Harvest, then they'll win the seat. I would rate it currently at Leans Democratic for the fall

SD 23 is the most competitive Senate seat in the state's Black Belt. Harris won it by 5.5 points, mainly thanks to the Blacker counties in the district's north. Trump did best in the whiter southern portions of the seat. This being said, each candidate did better in precincts that matched their race across the district

HD 32 is a minority-opportunity district that stretches between Talladega and Anniston to the east of the Birmingham area. Despite the majority-nonwhite status of the seat, Harris only carried it by just over a point and a half in 2024. The rural portions of the seat combined with African American defections from the Democratic Party have both helped to make the seat more competitive

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